By the way

they've updated todays weather warnings and it's snowing hard at Lolo Pass and not so much at Lost Trail Pass.

La Nina baby

Wiki is great. It would appear that the IR signature would be consistent with La Niña:

La Niña is the name for the cold phase of ENSO, during which the cold pool in the eastern Pacific intensifies and the trade winds strengthen. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning "the little girl", analogous to El Niño meaning "the little boy". It has also in the past been called anti-El Niño.
Effects of La Niña
Regional impacts of La Niña.
La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño, for example, El NiNiño would cause a wet period in the Midwestern U.S., while La Niña would typically cause a dry period in this area.
Recent occurrences
There was a strong La Niña episode during 1988-1989. La Niña also formed in 1995, and in 1999-2000. The last La Niña was a minor one, and occurred 2000-2001. Currently, there is a moderate La Niña, which began developing in mid-2007. NOAA confirmed that a moderate La Niña developed in their November El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion, and that it will likely continue into 2008. According to NOAA, "Expected La Niña impacts during November – January include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in southern and eastern regions of the Pacific Northwest. Below-average precipitation is expected across the southern tier, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states."In March 2008, La Niña caused a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by an amount of 2°C. It also caused heavy rains over Malyasia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Is this La Nina?

Today's IR satellite image loop showed cyclonic flow from a low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska treadmilling moisture from west of Kuai all the way up and inland from the Washington and Oregon coasts. Is this a La Nina? I'm going to find out...

encore snow!!!!

weather.gov National Weather ServiceWatches, Warnings & Advisories


Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 415 AM MST TUE DEC 30 2008
...ANOTHER MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION NEW YEARS EVE DAY....A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND MANY VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND HELP MIX HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH FRESH FALLEN SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM BLOWING SNOW.

SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-WEST GLACIER REGION- BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION- 415 AM MST TUE DEC 30 2008 /315 AM PST TUE DEC 30 2008/
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY UP TO 14 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...INCREASING WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO CREATE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LOLO PASS AND MARIAS PASS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

I can't keep up!

OK, we got a decent dump from the last winter storm warning as the roadcams from Lolo Pass, Lost Trail Pass North and South views and Kootenay Pass show (compare to Dec 12th and Dec 9th posts. The signs are getting shorter:)). I should mention that we basically had a series of at least 4 days of Winter Storm Warnings starting on the 24th shown below going through yesterday evening the 29th. The mountains recieved a lot of moisture. Snotel data from 1 am December 25th to December 30th 10am are as follows: Saddle Mountain - snow depth went from 38.00 to 54.20" with 2.60" snow water equivalent (SWE), Twin Lakes - snow depth increased from 42.50 to 67.10" with 5.00" SWE!!!, and Lolo Pass snow depth increased from 23.70 to 46.00" with 4.00" SWE. Thus, it appears about 2 feet of increase to the snow depth with the snow from the 28th being of higher density with the warmer temps. High temps were on the 28th at 35F for Lolo and Twin Lakes and 32F on the 29th for Saddle Mountain. Also, Lost Trail recieved at least 34 inches from the storm cylcle. I lost track around Christmas. Avalanche dangers are high with this higher density snow on top of the weak now faceted snow from the cold spell that hit two weeks ago. There were reports from Tom of on piste avalanches prior to this latest storm in areas that had been bombed over in northern Idaho including one that went to the ground at Silver Mountain. He said their snowpack is more typical to Colorado which has created problems for Schweitzer trail skiing because even though they had a 60" snow pack it is too low in water content to sufficiently cover all the rocks and alders growing on the trails that the normally higher water content snow they get covers. Patrollers there claim it hasn't been like this since '81 and they are hoping for rain to shore up the stability and base. Obviously we probably are facing the same unless this newer wetter snow somehow provides some density and stability.

We skied the Vista Loop at Chief Joseph Pass Saturday the 27th in the snow. There was maybe 8 inches new. While we were there it was very cloudy and there were periods of moderate snow while with a lot of wind from the southwest. I noticed that off the groomed trail one would sink quite far into the snow through a breakable layer about a foot down. Underneath the breakable layer the snow seemed extremely weak and faceted just as others had reported. We took a break at the warming hut which I had never actually been inside. It was very warm and cozy and they even had hot chocolate like all true warming huts should. Olin really enjoyed himself especially the hot chocolate. He met a 3 year old named Andrew and they enjoyed banging on the fire extinguisher and rolling on the floor. After our rest, we tried to get Olin to ski back towards the car from the hut but it was too windy and snowy so we put him back in the Chariot and glided back to the car. I wanted to get back out Sunday for a day at Lost Trail but Kristie needed to work on her paper and Olin was too tired but fidgety for me to feel like he would stand another stint stuck in the Chariot in the snow. As it turned out Kristie spoke with some friends who sais I shouldn't feel bad as they skied Lost Trail Christmas day and Snow Bowl Saturday and said that anything off the groomed/skied areas was not good as you'd hit something or break through a crust. Claire said Lost Trail on Friday the 26th and Sunday the 28th was good both days though. So perhaps Sunday would have been nice but I had a great day with Olin making a super wet snowman in the back yard and splashing in puddles.

Through the cycle the valley remained cloudy recieving a little bit of snow christmas morning with some snow showers over subsequent days until it started pooring rain sometime early in the morning on the 28th and continued through most of the day. Then colder air infiltrated again sometime early in the morning on the 29th and we were greeted to falling snow with 8 inches or snow when we got up Monday morning which was coating all the trees in a very picturesque classic way. The snow changed to groppel/freezing rain by lunch before changing back to snow as the cold front swept through in the evening pushing out the last remnants of the storm. Today snow clouds remain over the mountains and another Winter Storm Watch is in effect for later tonight and tomorrow!

More snow!!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
349 AM MST WED DEC 24 2008
...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH CHRISTMAS....A VERY MOIST AND DYNAMIC WINTER STORM IS COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LIFTING OF WARM...MOIST AIR OVER THE DOME OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. THE SNOW WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING PLACES THIS FEATURE INTO WESTERN MONTANA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE BITTERROOTS. SHOWERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS- KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION- BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS- 349 AM MST WED DEC 24 2008 /249 AM PST WED DEC 24 2008/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BECOMING HEAVIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES BY THE END OF CHRISTMAS DAY WITH UP TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TRAVEL OVER LOOKOUT...LOLO...AND LOST TRAIL PASSES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... BLOWING SNOW...OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE

More Snow?

The last storm did not deliver the punch advertised around here unfortunately. Although it was snowy in the mountains it wasn't heavy. Snotel's at Lost Trail, Lolo and Twin Lakes reported only 4-6 inches, a far cry from the 1-2 feet which didn't provide enough to push the base over the top. It was cold and the moisture content of the snow was low which resulted in more of a dust on breakable crust/slab situation. Colin confirmed this point on his Gash Point trip on Friday the 19th. He skied the North and South bowls and experienced chunkiness underneath the new snow and was still hitting ground. He also said the skiing was tough because of a breakable layer underneath the new snow. Paul, the bartender at the Bitterroot Brewery, had a similar experience from his Thursday and Friday outings somewhere around Lost Trail. And yet another group reported to Colin that Camas Peak was a disaster trying to ski as boulders were finding ski bases. The valley received ~1 inch of snow out of it too so things seemed to have really happened to the Northwest with Spokane topping out the snow reports at 37 inches as of Friday! Dave Morris said he's never seen so much snow there. We'll see what the next one brings:

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT

323 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2008
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-

BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-

323 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2008 /223 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2008/

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ MONDAY... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ MONDAY.SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND INTO BITTERROOTMOUNTAINS OF WEST-CENTRAL WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILLBECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER AREA PEAKS BY LATER MONDAY MORNING. TRAVEL WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS OVER LOLO PASS DURING THIS TIME. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

More Snow!

More snow!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
519 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2008

.A VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE VERY COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SNOW WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-519 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2008 /

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ FRIDAY...

FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MODERATE AND IMPACTING THE HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR FROM POWELL IDAHO TO LOLO PASS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IMPACTING THE ENTIRE AREA.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Gash Point - Saturday December 13th, 2008

It was a magical but intimidating start to the day. I woke up around 6am to darkness and light snow. When I went into the gargage to run the coffee grinder (so as to not wake Olin and Kristie up) the snow was falling gently and there had been maybe half an inch overnight after a rainy start. The temp was cold though and by the time I was half way through my cereal at 6:30 it was REALLY stormy with borderline blizzard conditions. My posse called around 7 am to say they were leaving Missoula and would be in Victor in 45 minutes which I knew would more like an hour due to the weather. After almost bailing I decided to just pack up and head to Victor to just get a feel for the day. By the time I left around 7:40 there was maybe another 2 inches since I had been to the garage and it was really blowing snow from the north. I arrived in Victor just ahead of Colin Chisholm, Dave Morris, Hilary Wood and Brian Story. We drove up to the trailhead through maybe 6 inches of snow on the lower portions of the road but then drove through ~15 inches with deeper wind drifts above the lower trailhead. The last 3 switchbacks were the most challenging because Colin had a hard time seeing through the snow that was billowing over the car. The weather above the valley floor was actually more friendly - it was warmer (~20F) and there was very little wind and snow. We skinned (starting around 9:30) from the cars all the way to the ridge above the north bowl at ~8000ft where it was cold and windy from the northeast (5F with -10F'ish wind chill as predicted). Needless to say we warmed up after 2 laps. The skiing was very good although the snow in places was wind affected. It skied well though especially lower down in the trees. The base was good but you had to keep your eyes out for snags from fallen logs in places. All in all though an amazing first day out with friends. We made it back to the car by 2:15ish and then on up to the Downing Mountain Lodge for the open house by 4:00. Another great day in the Bitterroot!

What to do tomorrow?

I can't believe it! Lost Trail Pass has a new road camera. I really don't know what to think about this. I kind of liked the mystery you know? It just doesn't seem as Lost now. But look at the new snow! OK, I like it.

Changes in snow's favor

This afternoon's updated map puts all the mountains in winter Storm Warning mode and the Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys under a Winter Storm Watch. There's even a blizzard watch for the Polson/Kalispell/West Glacier region!

Winter!

Here's a skier's forecast for you:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT-WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
354 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008

.A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA PROVIDING INCREASED PRECIPITATION...FOLLOWED BY COOLER POST- FRONTAL AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ARCTIC AIR POISED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AND PORTIONS OF THE FLATHEAD VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY

...A MAJOR SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUNCH INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN BY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW RESULTING IN LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...PLUS BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WHERE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED OVER A COLDER DOME OF AIR TO THE EAST. A STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST.

MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
354 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...COLD AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

And the Backcountry Forecast:

WEST CENTRAL MONTANA- INCLUDING...RATTLESNAKE WILDERNESS AND BITTERROOTS FROM LOOKOUT PASS TO LOST TRAIL PASS
--------------------------- 4000-6000 FT ----------------------------
--------------------FRI --FRI NIGHT- SAT ---SAT NIGHT-SUN
CLOUD COVER: MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
HI/LO TEMPS: 29 TO 39 16 TO 23 18 TO 27 -13 TO -2 -4 TO 8
WINDS(MPH): S 10 ----S 14 ----------E 20 -----SE 18 -----E 16
PRECIP CHC: -----50 -----100------- 100------ 70 ---------40
PRECIP TYPE: -SNOW ---SNOW ---SNOW ----SNO/SHR -SNO/SHR
LIQUID AMT: --0.02 ----0.55 ------0.33 -----0.08 -------0.04
SNOW AMT(IN): 0 -------6-8 ---------8-10 -----2-3 ---------0
--------------------------- 6000-8000 FT ----------------------------
-------------------FRI --FRI NIGHT- SAT---SAT NIGHT-SUN
CLOUD COVER: PCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
HI/LO TEMPS: 27 TO 34 12 TO 21 15 TO 24 -11 TO 6 -2 TO 9
WINDS(MPH): --S 14----- SW 23---- W 18 -----SE 18 ----SE 13
PRECIP CHC: ----20 ------100 ------100 -------80 -------50
PRECIP TYPE: SNOW --SNOW --SNOW ---SNO/SHR- SNO/SHR
LIQUID AMT: -0.01 -----0.56 -------0.35 -----0.10 ----0.06
SNOW AMT(IN): 0 ------8-10 --------9-11---- 3-5------ 0-1
SNOW LEVEL: -4500 ---3000 -----500 -------0 --------0

Thus, it would seem the GFS model prediction beats out the EURO. Poor EURO.

BC highwaycam snow-fix...will we get some?

The region has started to transition to winter finally after an extended period of seasonally warm weather. It was cool and mostly clear here today but they are forecasting some snow showers to hit over the next few days. A part of that moisture has hit up north as it was snowing up on Kootenay and Rogers Passes:

Here's a snippet of todays forecast discussion which sounds promising for some more snow:

.LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THE OVERALL BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION WITH A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT FORMING AND EXTENDING NORTH TO THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL BRING A COLD TROUGH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS MODELS IN THE DETAILS. OPERATIONAL GFS FROM THE 12Z CYCLE CHANGED TO A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY EVENING... AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT ALSO MAINTAINS A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EURO MODEL BRINGS COLDER AIR TO THE AREA AND MORE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER SOLUTION OVERALL. THE FORECAST WAS MOVED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WARMED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Wouldn't that be nice?

Snow!!!

Sunday night's storm brought at least 6 inches of snow to many locations in Western Montana. Colin reported that he and Nuna skied 10-12"of fresh on top of a glaze ice concrete base (from the rainstorm Friday night) yesterday at the Gash Point North Bowl.

Snow is on the way!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT

326 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008

...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHCENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING....A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIESSUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGWIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THEMOUNTAINS...IMPACTING TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES. BY MONDAY MORNINGACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MANY VALLEYFLOORS.MT

BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-326 AM MST

SUN DEC 7 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST MONDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST MONDAY.SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH AS MUCH AS 8INCHES AT LOLO PASS...CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USECAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Boulder Point Lookout

Kristie and I hiked up to Boulder Point back on Saturday November 22nd. We were excited to get out together for some outdoor therapy and to give the grandmas some time with Olin all to themselves. It was about 35F and spitting snow as we proceeded up West Fork Road and there was a trace of fresh snow which kept in shaded places as it had been gently snowing at the trail head overnight. The hike up was composed of ~2800 vertical feet of climbing over ~2.25 miles of trail. The snow became light but steady after climbing up a few hundred vertical feet past the weather station and the brief ridge bench. Following the trail wasn't a problem as we were following one person and a dog whose tracks were yet to be obscured by snow. As we hiked the snow depth increased to several inches at ~7000 ft where we ran into a pretty substantial blow down which blocked the trail. Our track makers opted to beat trail straight uphill in an apparent effort to find the next switchback. After losing faith in our track makers' route, negotiating snow covered boulder fields we opted to follow the ridge for the last portion of the climb to the lookout. The lookout was braving the gently blowing cloud wisps and snow and was looking very cozy with its storm flaps open and wood smoke plumes peppering the air. Our track makers turned out to be Jack Wade and his dog Dozier who welcomed us with a hot stove and water for the dogs. After a good chat and some stove warmth we left for the descent. Upon leaving the lookout we noted the ~6 inches of snow depth with 2-3 of those inches from the current system. We descended to the car in 48 minutes and enjoyed the muscle aches from our efforts over the next few days.

Elk Meadows Road

We rendez-vous'ed with Porter, Mindy, Eli and Gabe in Lolo for an outing up Elk Meadows Road this past Sunday November 30th. Porter is a champion for outdoor family adventures and we were thankful for his call Saturday promoting the outing. We thought there was a possibility we could schlep around on our cross-country skis but at the least we'd be able to get the boys out on their sleds. I was a little concerned with the potential for slick forest service roads but Porter had been to the same location on Thursday to hunt Christmas trees. He experienced wintery climate with snow-packed but passable roads as the temps had been cold enough to keep true pack ice from forming. As it turned out the little trough that blew through Saturday brought warmth (42F at the turnoff from route 12!) and rain up to our destination (39F) so the roads were melting ice sheets in places but there was gravel and pine needles enough to keep us on the road. Olin was really excited to get on his skis which made me happy. He also really enjoyed being pushed around in the sled and walking in the snow following Eli around. We all had great fun despite the drippy weather as good comaraderie provided.

After several weeks of a news fast my pundit induced nausea is finally clearing up. Today I eased back in to political news coverage with this:http://www.slate.com/id/2205849/ from which I found this quote very telling of our president-elect's grounded wisdom:

"The job of an elected official -- whether it's a President or a council member -- is to solve problems, deliver for the people, don't spend all your time bickering, stay off the cable news shows. You know, and I watch sometime those shows, and I realize, you know, you're arguing about the past, we need to be talking about the future."- Barak Obama, November 1, 2008.

We took the pics above at the Obama speach in Missoula back in April. In the top pic Obama is in the middle of shaking Olin's hand (yes, we've washed it since). In the bottom photo it's amazing to contrast Obama's friendly enthusiasm as he greets supporters with the protective intensity of the secret service dudes behind him.

http://www.mdt.mt.gov/travinfo/weather/rwis_google.shtml

Here's the link for MT DOT webcams.

This post is for my blog hero Christoph. Unfortunately his and Lindsay's trip to southern Utah was blown off course to Denver by bad weather. To console themselves while in Denver they adopted a Siberian husky pup. So here are some pics for the Ammann family to enjoy: super husky Nuna dropping in off the summit ridge of Trapper Peak and some petroglyphs at Capital Reef National Monument.

Looks like we missed it. Today's forecast for Lost Trail Pass (2008-12-02):

Late Afternoon: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 24. West northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. West northwest wind between 9 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. North northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

We need some snow here in the Northern Rockies so I thought this would serve for now. Check out the remnants of Kristie's over the head face shot!