Gash Point - Saturday December 13th, 2008

It was a magical but intimidating start to the day. I woke up around 6am to darkness and light snow. When I went into the gargage to run the coffee grinder (so as to not wake Olin and Kristie up) the snow was falling gently and there had been maybe half an inch overnight after a rainy start. The temp was cold though and by the time I was half way through my cereal at 6:30 it was REALLY stormy with borderline blizzard conditions. My posse called around 7 am to say they were leaving Missoula and would be in Victor in 45 minutes which I knew would more like an hour due to the weather. After almost bailing I decided to just pack up and head to Victor to just get a feel for the day. By the time I left around 7:40 there was maybe another 2 inches since I had been to the garage and it was really blowing snow from the north. I arrived in Victor just ahead of Colin Chisholm, Dave Morris, Hilary Wood and Brian Story. We drove up to the trailhead through maybe 6 inches of snow on the lower portions of the road but then drove through ~15 inches with deeper wind drifts above the lower trailhead. The last 3 switchbacks were the most challenging because Colin had a hard time seeing through the snow that was billowing over the car. The weather above the valley floor was actually more friendly - it was warmer (~20F) and there was very little wind and snow. We skinned (starting around 9:30) from the cars all the way to the ridge above the north bowl at ~8000ft where it was cold and windy from the northeast (5F with -10F'ish wind chill as predicted). Needless to say we warmed up after 2 laps. The skiing was very good although the snow in places was wind affected. It skied well though especially lower down in the trees. The base was good but you had to keep your eyes out for snags from fallen logs in places. All in all though an amazing first day out with friends. We made it back to the car by 2:15ish and then on up to the Downing Mountain Lodge for the open house by 4:00. Another great day in the Bitterroot!

What to do tomorrow?

I can't believe it! Lost Trail Pass has a new road camera. I really don't know what to think about this. I kind of liked the mystery you know? It just doesn't seem as Lost now. But look at the new snow! OK, I like it.

Changes in snow's favor

This afternoon's updated map puts all the mountains in winter Storm Warning mode and the Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys under a Winter Storm Watch. There's even a blizzard watch for the Polson/Kalispell/West Glacier region!

Winter!

Here's a skier's forecast for you:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT-WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
354 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008

.A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA PROVIDING INCREASED PRECIPITATION...FOLLOWED BY COOLER POST- FRONTAL AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ARCTIC AIR POISED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AND PORTIONS OF THE FLATHEAD VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY

...A MAJOR SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUNCH INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN BY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW RESULTING IN LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...PLUS BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WHERE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED OVER A COLDER DOME OF AIR TO THE EAST. A STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST.

MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
354 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...COLD AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

And the Backcountry Forecast:

WEST CENTRAL MONTANA- INCLUDING...RATTLESNAKE WILDERNESS AND BITTERROOTS FROM LOOKOUT PASS TO LOST TRAIL PASS
--------------------------- 4000-6000 FT ----------------------------
--------------------FRI --FRI NIGHT- SAT ---SAT NIGHT-SUN
CLOUD COVER: MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY
HI/LO TEMPS: 29 TO 39 16 TO 23 18 TO 27 -13 TO -2 -4 TO 8
WINDS(MPH): S 10 ----S 14 ----------E 20 -----SE 18 -----E 16
PRECIP CHC: -----50 -----100------- 100------ 70 ---------40
PRECIP TYPE: -SNOW ---SNOW ---SNOW ----SNO/SHR -SNO/SHR
LIQUID AMT: --0.02 ----0.55 ------0.33 -----0.08 -------0.04
SNOW AMT(IN): 0 -------6-8 ---------8-10 -----2-3 ---------0
--------------------------- 6000-8000 FT ----------------------------
-------------------FRI --FRI NIGHT- SAT---SAT NIGHT-SUN
CLOUD COVER: PCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY
HI/LO TEMPS: 27 TO 34 12 TO 21 15 TO 24 -11 TO 6 -2 TO 9
WINDS(MPH): --S 14----- SW 23---- W 18 -----SE 18 ----SE 13
PRECIP CHC: ----20 ------100 ------100 -------80 -------50
PRECIP TYPE: SNOW --SNOW --SNOW ---SNO/SHR- SNO/SHR
LIQUID AMT: -0.01 -----0.56 -------0.35 -----0.10 ----0.06
SNOW AMT(IN): 0 ------8-10 --------9-11---- 3-5------ 0-1
SNOW LEVEL: -4500 ---3000 -----500 -------0 --------0

Thus, it would seem the GFS model prediction beats out the EURO. Poor EURO.

BC highwaycam snow-fix...will we get some?

The region has started to transition to winter finally after an extended period of seasonally warm weather. It was cool and mostly clear here today but they are forecasting some snow showers to hit over the next few days. A part of that moisture has hit up north as it was snowing up on Kootenay and Rogers Passes:

Here's a snippet of todays forecast discussion which sounds promising for some more snow:

.LONG RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THE OVERALL BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION WITH A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT FORMING AND EXTENDING NORTH TO THE BERING SEA WHICH WILL BRING A COLD TROUGH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS MODELS IN THE DETAILS. OPERATIONAL GFS FROM THE 12Z CYCLE CHANGED TO A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY EVENING... AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT ALSO MAINTAINS A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. EURO MODEL BRINGS COLDER AIR TO THE AREA AND MORE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER SOLUTION OVERALL. THE FORECAST WAS MOVED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WARMED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Wouldn't that be nice?

Snow!!!

Sunday night's storm brought at least 6 inches of snow to many locations in Western Montana. Colin reported that he and Nuna skied 10-12"of fresh on top of a glaze ice concrete base (from the rainstorm Friday night) yesterday at the Gash Point North Bowl.

Snow is on the way!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT

326 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2008

...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHCENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING....A MOIST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIESSUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGWIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THEMOUNTAINS...IMPACTING TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES. BY MONDAY MORNINGACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO MANY VALLEYFLOORS.MT

BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-326 AM MST

SUN DEC 7 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST MONDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST MONDAY.SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH AS MUCH AS 8INCHES AT LOLO PASS...CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USECAUTION WHILE DRIVING.